February 22, 2006


Reader Sean asked for an updated probability table based on my original prediction of Canada's medal total for the 2006 Olympics. So before it gets overtaken by events on Day 12, here it is:

Table 1 — Medal win probabilities (remaining) for Canadians at the 2006 winter Olympics
Sport Event Expected Medals
Speedskating - Long Track Women's 1500 m 1.00
Women's 5000 m 0.60
Speedskating - Short Track Women's 3000 m Relay 0.90
Men's 500 m 0.75
Women's 1000 m 0.35
Men's 5000 m Relay 0.75
Hockey Men's 0.75
Bobsleigh Men's Four-Man 0.50
Freestyle Skiing Men's Aerials 0.35
Women's Aerials 0.10
Curling Men's 0.75
Women's 0.75
Figure Skating Women's 0.10
Cross Country Ski Women's Sprint 0.60
Alpine Ski Men's Slalom 0.10
Snowboard Men's Parallel Giant Slalom 0.10
Women's Parallel Giant Slalom 0.10
TOTAL 8.55

In this table, I've only included events where I predicted a non-zero chance of winning. So to follow along at home, here's how it works: when Canada wins a medal, my "expected total" goes up by (1 - EM), where EM is the Expected Medals value in the table above; and when Canada doesn't win a medal, my "expected total" goes down by EM for that event. For events not shown above, EM is equal to zero. What happens to the probability distribution is more complicated.

As of today, my prediction stands at 22.6±1.8, that is, the 14 Canada has already won, plus the 8.6 above; the original prediction was 21.1±3.0.

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