I don't have a lot of editorial comment to make about Day 1 of the 2010 Winter Olympics. I watched a lot of it on television, I followed team media announcements on Twitter, and I enjoyed myself. There was a great variety of stuff going on, covering many of my favourite Winter Olympic things.
Canada didn't have a great day, but it wasn't terrible either. Jennifer Heil won a medal in moguls, which will unfortunately fall into the disappointed-not-to-get-the-gold category. Our short track speed skating team didn't win a medal in the men's 1500 m, along the way making a pretty good case for the usefulness of a statistical approach to prediction. Charles Hamelin, considered a very strong contender, ended up in the same semifinal with the eventual gold and silver medalists and failed to advance to the final. Olivier Jean, who I gave an outside chance at a medal, was "advanced" to the final after a crash, and ended up fourth.
Those events have had a detrimental effect on my medal prediction, but not an unrecoverable one. Overall the mean of my predicted medal total has decreased from 27.05 to 26.30, with a small decrease in the standard deviation. The prediction is also impacted by the delay of the men's downhill until Monday.
| Sport | Event | Athlete | Category | Result | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freestyle Ski | Moguls - W | Heil, Jennifer | Lock | SILVER | +0.10 |
| Freestyle Ski | Moguls - W | Richards, Kristi | Outside | 20th | -0.10 |
| Speed Skating - ST | 1,500m - M | Hamelin, Charles | Strong | 8th | -0.65 |
| Speed Skating - ST | 1,500m - M | Jean, Olivier | Outside | 4th | -0.10 |
| TOTAL | -0.75 |
You can see from the figure below that I am predicting Canada will bring in a steady 1-2 medals per day until Day 9.
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