I don't have a lot of editorial comment to make about Day 1 of the 2010 Winter Olympics. I watched a lot of it on television, I followed team media announcements on Twitter, and I enjoyed myself. There was a great variety of stuff going on, covering many of my favourite Winter Olympic things.
Canada didn't have a great day, but it wasn't terrible either. Jennifer Heil won a medal in moguls, which will unfortunately fall into the disappointed-not-to-get-the-gold category. Our short track speed skating team didn't win a medal in the men's 1500 m, along the way making a pretty good case for the usefulness of a statistical approach to prediction. Charles Hamelin, considered a very strong contender, ended up in the same semifinal with the eventual gold and silver medalists and failed to advance to the final. Olivier Jean, who I gave an outside chance at a medal, was "advanced" to the final after a crash, and ended up fourth.
Those events have had a detrimental effect on my medal prediction, but not an unrecoverable one. Overall the mean of my predicted medal total has decreased from 27.05 to 26.30, with a small decrease in the standard deviation. The prediction is also impacted by the delay of the men's downhill until Monday.
|Freestyle Ski||Moguls - W||Heil, Jennifer||Lock||SILVER||+0.10|
|Freestyle Ski||Moguls - W||Richards, Kristi||Outside||20th||-0.10|
|Speed Skating - ST||1,500m - M||Hamelin, Charles||Strong||8th||-0.65|
|Speed Skating - ST||1,500m - M||Jean, Olivier||Outside||4th||-0.10|
You can see from the figure below that I am predicting Canada will bring in a steady 1-2 medals per day until Day 9.